Space weather is becoming increasingly important in our technologically advanced world.
Space weather: from spectacular lights in the
sky to power grid failures
Space weather can not only cause fascinating northern lights, but in more extreme cases also trigger problems with technical systems, affecting global navigation systems, satellite communications or power grid operations, among other issues. A super solar storm could even lead to long-term failures of technical infrastructure.
When solar storms hit the Earth, they can trigger geomagnetic storms. Geomagnetic storms are rapid changes in the Earth´s magnetic field that generate strong currents in long and conductive infrastructure such as power lines and railway tracks. This can damage power lines, for example, which in turn can lead to power outages. In our technologically advanced world, we rely on electricity for many things, and without electricity, serious problems can quickly arise.
Solar storms were therefore included in the Austrian National Risk Analysis in 2023 with the aim of minimising the vulnerability to solar storms. The negative effects of solar storms can be mitigated with better predictions of the arrival time and strength of geomagnetic storms. However, these forecasts are currently much less accurate than terrestrial weather forecasts. For a better understanding of solar storms and their effects, and to improve their forecasting, the Austrian Space Weather Office at GeoSphere Austria is conducting research on this topic.
In Central Europe, the Austrian Space Weather Office is a unique research unit that combines basic research in heliophysics (the physics of the Sun and its effects on the solar system) with applications in the field of space weather forecasting. With the Conrad Observatory, which provides precise local data of the Earth´s magnetic field, and a measurement network for geomagnetically induced currents operated by the Austrian power grid operator APG, GeoSphere Austria has an internationally highly innovative infrastructure for tracking solar storms and their effects from the Sun to the Earth´s surface in order to better understand and predict them.
Research and development for accurate space weather forecasting
At GeoSphere Austria, models and simulations of the solar wind, solar storms and northern lights are created using freely available data from space probes of the European and US space organisations, ESA and NASA. These models and simulations are primarily designed for short computation times so that they can be used for forecasts in real time. In addition, impact-based studies and models with data from critical infrastructure (extra-high voltage grid) are created and made available (see info box).
Improved understanding of space weather
GeoSphere Austria conducts basic research to improve our physical understanding of solar wind and solar storms, as well as their effects on the Earth´s magnetic field, the Earth´s atmosphere and the Earth´s surface. To this end, the fields of space physics, meteorology and geology are linked in order to track and better understand phenomena across the boundaries of different research fields. For example, solar storms can be tracked from the Sun to the solar wind and their effect on the Earth´s magnetic field. The national and international research communities benefit from our research results and use our openly accessible catalogues of solar storms and open-source models, which we create.
Further development of space weather forecasting with a focus on impact
We are developing products to predict the arrival time and strength of geomagnetic storms in real time. We are also working on warnings for geomagnetic storms in a multi-hazard context. Impact-based information for operators of critical infrastructure will be made available at national level and, from 2026, also at European level. With this information, electricity grid operators can, for example, estimate how great the impact of a predicted solar storm will be on their grids and, if necessary, take mitigating measures to secure the power supply. A collaboration with the Federal Ministry of the Interior is also currently in a pilot phase to utilise this data in crisis preparedness.
Research into the integration of data from new space missions also plays a major role, which is expected to lead to significant improvements in the prediction of solar storms and their effects in the coming years. The PUNCH mission of the US-American space agency, NASA will provide images of the solar wind with measurements of the polarisation of the measured light for the first time from 2025 onwards, and the European Space Agency, ESA will launch Vigil, the first spacecraft in a planned series of space weather stations, in 2031. From the planned orbit, the speed and direction of solar storms travelling towards Earth can be measured much better.
This link between solar storms and their impact on society has been scarcely researched internationally so far, and Austria is playing a pioneering role here.
Assessment: will the northern lights be visible?
GeoSphere Austria provides information about current Northern Lights events and the present status of the solar cycle via press releases and social media postings. In particular, we provide scientifically sound estimates of when the Northern Lights may be visible not only in Austria and in Central Europe, but also worldwide.
Image of a strong burst of radiation on the Sun on October 9, 2024 by the NASA Solar Dynamics Observatory spacecraft. So-called flares often occur in connection with eruptions of solar storms. Courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
A solar storm on October 9, 2024, captured by the NASA SDO and the ESA SOHO spacecraft. The storm, which is directed towards Earth, can be seen forming a ring around the Sun. The comet Tsuchinshan-ATLAS is also visible.
