GeoSphere Austria's activities in the CAMS National Collaboration Programme

GeoSphere Austria uses data from the European Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) to optimise the prediction of man-made and natural air pollutants.

GeoSphere Austria is constantly improving not only its weather forecasts, but also its air quality forecasts. Even though the focus is on the near-surface atmospheric layer and man-made air pollution, GeoSphere Austria also calculates forecasts for ash and sulphur dioxide of volcanic origin for higher atmospheric layers up to the stratosphere (up to approx. 20 km). In addition to the extensive modelling applications of GeoSphere Austria, products from Copernicus and the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) are now also incorporated into these special forecasts and improve them.

Improving the forecasts in the event of volcanic eruptions also has an important motivation: if an aircraft encounters ash in high concentrations, flight safety is jeopardised as molten volcanic ash in the engines can cause the turbines to fail. Sulphur dioxide is also problematic, as it can cause acute respiratory problems for passengers and crew in high concentrations. Even if there is no immediate danger, increased aircraft maintenance requirements and fuel consumption are to be expected as a long-term consequence.

Copernicus is the Earth observation component of the European Union's space programme. The programme provides large amounts of global data, information and services based on satellite-based Earth observation and in-situ measurements (non-space data). The name Copernicus is derived from the famous European scientist Nicolaus Copernicus, whose view of the world with the sun at its centre made an important contribution to modern science.

Copernicus is coordinated and managed by the European Commission and implemented in partnership with the Member States and various organisations, such as the European Space Agency (ESA), the European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT) and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The Copernicus Services are intended to help service providers, public authorities and other international organisations to improve the quality of life of European citizens. The information services offered are freely and openly accessible to their users.

Further information on Copernicus can be found in the Copernicus brochure.

The Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) continuously provides data and information on the composition of the atmosphere by monitoring and forecasting components such as greenhouse gases (e.g. CO2 or methane), reactive gases (e.g. ozone) and aerosols.

In this way, CAMS provides consistent and quality-controlled information to support the development of solutions in the areas of air pollution, health, solar energy, greenhouse gases and climate change, and to counteract environmental problems.

CAMS was established at ECMWF on behalf of the European Union using EU funding.

In order to ensure increased utilisation and further development of the CAMS portfolio, the ECMWF has been working increasingly with national service providers (such as GeoSphere Austria) in Europe in recent years. This is done on the basis of the CAMS National Collaboration Programme (CAMS-NCP), in which the national service providers receive funding contracts from the ECMWF in order to better fulfil their mission at national level with the help of CAMS products. Conversely, proven procedures and practices of the national states are also to be utilised for CAMS.

Concrete use of CAMS products for predictions after volcanic eruptions at GeoSphere Austria

As mentioned at the beginning, CAMS products are now being used to improve the volcano forecasts of GeoSphere Austria. The basic concept is to combine the global, coarse-resolution model output of CAMS, which is based on SO2 already observed via satellites, with the high-resolution SO2 short-term forecasts (48 or 72 hours) of GeoSphere Austria for the last eruption phase not yet observed by CAMS (for which a source term must be estimated) in the event of a longer-lasting volcanic eruption. The average residence time of SO2 in the atmosphere, which ranges from about one week (in the troposphere up to an altitude of about 10 km) to several weeks (in the stratosphere), must also be taken into account. An important result should be not only a better quality of the volcano forecasts, but also a significantly reduced computing power and computing time.

Longer volcanic eruptions lasting more than a few days with stronger and weaker phases are not uncommon in Europe either. The Eyjafjallajökull eruption in 2010, the Grimsvötn eruption in 2011, the Holuhraun eruption in 2014 (all three in Iceland) and the Cumbre Vieja eruption in 2021 in the Canary Islands (Spain) are recent examples. As the necessary CAMS SO2 fields were available for the Cumbre Vieja eruption in 2021, this volcanic eruption was used to investigate the usefulness of the new approach.

La Palma is the most volcanically active island in the Canary Islands. After a dormant period of about 50 years, the Cumbra Vieja eruption began on 19 September 2021 after days of intense seismicity, which lasted three months. The fissure eruption was characterised by several lava fountains over 100 m high, covered an area of approx. 12 km2 with lava and destroyed numerous settlements and agricultural land. The eruption column formed by ash and sulphur dioxide reached a height of approx. 6,000 m above sea level at the end of September and beginning of October 2021. The SO2 cloud also reached the airspace of continental Europe.

The comparison of the model simulations of this eruption with satellite data (Figures 1) shows the added value of the method developed in the project. While the observed two-part structure of the SO2 cloud on 18 October is completely missing without CAMS input, it can be correctly reproduced with the aid of CAMS data.

As soon as a CAMS volcanic ash product is available, the method for volcanic ash could be adopted immediately.

Translated with DeepL.com (free version)