Solar storm warning: ESA funds GeoSphere Austria’s ‘Space Weather Alert System’

In close collaboration between the Conrad Observatory and the Austrian Space Weather Office at GeoSphere Austria, the ‘Space Weather Alert System’ project is conducting a feasibility study into the commercial use of solar storm forecasts and data. Together with energy suppliers and positioning services, the project is investigating how these forecasting systems can be used optimally and in a value-adding way to protect critical infrastructure. The project is funded by the ESA programmes Applications and Space Solutions (BASS) and Space Safety (S2P).

Solar storms not only create beautiful auroras on Earth, but in extreme cases can also cause damage and disruptions to infrastructure such as power grids and navigation systems. The Conrad Observatory at GeoSphere Austria operates measurement systems that monitor the effects of these storms on Austria in real time. The Space Weather Office at GeoSphere Austria develops and operates specialised forecasting models for solar storms and is one of the world’s leading teams in this field. Together with other research organisations and users, such as Austrian Power Grid AG, Austrocontrol GmbH and the Austrian Armed Forces, the Austrian Space Weather Portal was launched last year. This online platform provides the public with free access to all key information and live data on space weather. The ongoing ‘Space Weather Alert System’ project builds on this.

In the feasibility study, which runs from January 2026 to January 2027, the Conrad Observatory and the Space Weather Office at GeoSphere Austria, in collaboration with energy suppliers and positioning services (navigation, surveying, etc.), are investigating how scientific forecasting systems and data on solar storms can be utilised commercially and become an integral part of protecting critical infrastructure. ‘The feasibility study aims to clarify which data and forecasts are required by energy suppliers and positioning services to protect our population and infrastructure efficiently, thereby also significantly reducing costs,’ says project manager and space weather expert Veronika Haberle. ‘Furthermore, it will clarify how such services can be technically implemented, whether there is economic potential, and ultimately a concrete roadmap for planning such a value-adding Space Weather Service for energy suppliers and positioning services will be developed.’ As one of five projects under the 2025 call for proposals ‘Commercial applications of space weather data’, GeoSphere Austria’s ‘Space Weather Alert System’ was selected for funding by the European Space Agency (ESA). The five selected projects were presented for the first time in early February at ESA’s Mission Control Centre in Darmstadt. GeoSphere Austria’s ‘Space Weather Alert System’ feasibility study addresses two major areas: Forecasts for energy suppliers and for positioning services.

For energy suppliers, solar storms pose a threat when the fluctuations they cause in the Earth’s magnetic field induce direct currents in power grids, which can lead to damage and power cuts. An extreme example is the power cut in the Quebec region (Canada) in 1989, when around six million people were without power for about nine hours following a solar storm. ‘For solar storm warnings, our forecasting systems operate on two time scales,’ explains Veronika Haberle from the Conrad Observatory at GeoSphere Austria, ‘an initial warning is possible one to two days before a solar storm arrives and is then refined by the Austrian Space Weather Office as time progresses. The actual strength and effects of the induced currents can then be tracked live using data from the Conrad Observatory.’

Advance warning and early warning (lead time of hours to days): If a solar flare triggers a solar storm, a forecasting model calculates a possible arrival time on Earth up to three days in advance. At this stage, however, it is not yet clear whether the solar storm will hit Earth or pass by, or what effects it might have.

If the solar storm reaches a specific satellite positioned approximately 1.5 million kilometres from Earth, it will strike Earth within the next 30 to 60 minutes, and GeoSphere Austria can use the measurement data to estimate the effects the solar storm will have. At this point, an initial specific warning can be issued.

Short-term detailed warning (real-time analysis):
If the solar storm reaches Earth, changes in the Earth’s magnetic field are measured at the Conrad Observatory of GeoSphere Austria, and estimates of the impact on infrastructure can be determined.

In the ongoing ‘Space Weather Alert System’ feasibility study, energy suppliers and GeoSphere Austria are determining how the various forecasting systems can be tailored for use in an efficient and value-adding warning system, so that in future, in the event of an emergency, optimal protective measures for the power grids can be initiated immediately, either automatically or semi-automatically.

Solar storms can cause massive disruption to GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite Systems) services. GNSS services provide accurate positioning, navigation and timing data worldwide and are used in many fields.

‘For GNSS services, it is important simply to know that disruptions are to be expected. If one is aware of the extent of the potential disruption, important measurements can, for example, be postponed or carried out differently,’ explains Veronika Haberle. ‘But our data is also of great benefit in the post-processing of measurements. If, for example, it can be demonstrated in great detail when and to what extent past measurements were affected by solar storms, the quality of those measurements can be assessed retrospectively.’